Workshop Abstract:      

In this workshop we will cover the foundations of decision analysis. This includes the fundamental concepts of risk preference and the personalistic view of probability, which set decision analysis apart from other approaches to decision making.

We explore the meaning of probability – and the fact probability does not exist. We will discuss how to capture risk preference and why we often assume risk neutrality (expected value) in practice – it is not because we are making many decisions. Finally, we learn how to place a value on information – reducing uncertainty does not add value.

This workshop is intended for:

• New/Beginner Decision Practitioners
• Intermediate Decision Practitioners

Instructor:

J. Erick Bickel (The University of Texas at Austin)